The latest survey on Saturday’s presidential election has tipped President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to defeat All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, with at least a margin of 17 per cent.
According to a survey conducted by Forward magazine, a research and publishing company and Zevland Ventures Limited, a leading research and security consultancy firm, President Jonathan’s chances had been bolstered by the in-road he made in the South-West in the last couple of weeks.
The survey released by Chike Uchime of Forward magazine and Daniel Dickson-Okezie of Zevland Ventures Limited, showed that Jonathan will likely win the election.
Using 24,000 sample size across 33 states and the FCT, to decide through an opinion survey who will win the presidential election, the researchers stated that the outcome of the survey was based on three critical factors: (1) The respondents’ views on the achievements or performance of the President from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election; (2) The correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election and; (3) A detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
The release on the survey stated: “When asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65 per cent of the respondents opted for PDP, while 31 per cent favoured the APC, one per cent went for other parties, while the remaining two per cent went for none of the parties.
It revealed that when the respondents where asked how they would rate Dr. Goodluck Jonathan’s performance in 10 critical areas, the verdict was: Security, agriculture, power, education, transportation, aviation, Press freedom, fight against corruption, human rights and job creation, women empowerment, they scored the PDP flag-bearer as follows: security (46%); agriculture (65%); power (50%); education (53%); (60.5%); aviation (48.6%); Press freedom (64.7%); fight against corruption (65.6%); human rights ( 61% ); job creation (60%) and women empowerment (54%).
The survey also stated: “When the respondents were asked if they would vote for Dr Jonathan based on their responses to the previous questions, 62.2 per cent answered in the affirmative, and 29.7 per cent in the negative, while 4.1 per cent were undecided.
“On the question whether General Muhammadu Buhari is considered more capable in addressing the critical issues in the areas listed, 30.7 per cent answered in the affirmative, while 65 per cent answered in the negative. Another 4.3 per cent of the respondents were undecided. From the foregoing, it was becoming visible the likely direction of their votes.”
The survey report highlighted the dynamics that have taken place since the 2011 election and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
According to the report, “issues addressed here include: (i) The effect of intra-party conflicts; (ii) The effect of mass decampment/cross-carpeting; (iii) The effect of endorsements by ethno-religious groups, socio-cultural groups, paramount rulers and others; and (iv) Inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since 2011.
It stated: “Each of these issues will either have a positive or negative impact on the candidates. For example, the mass decampment of some PDP governors and party stalwarts to the APC may affect the PDP negatively in some states. However, this likely set-back may be cancelled out by some high-profile decampment into PDP such as that of Governor Mimiko of Ondo State and those of former Governors Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa and Ibrahim Shekarau etc.
In a related development, a poll result released yesterday by the Nigeria Polls and Survey group has put President Jonathan ahead of his closest rival, General Buhari with a slight margin of 7.01% in a nation-wide survey conducted by the reputable group of social scientists.
According to a release signed by the coordinator of the group, Dr. Ayo Alao, the result from the poll was based on a five-item questionnaire administered on a total of 10,294 registered voters selected from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Of these, 6.592 were males and 3,702 were females.
It added that the questionnaire sought to elicit information on respondents’ knowledge of political parties, possession of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), awareness of the election date, willingness to vote during the election and the respondents’ preferred presidential candidates in the 2015 election.
The 5,508 respondents indicated their intentions to vote for Jonathan compared to 4,786 respondents who favoured Buhari.
The data analysis shows that Jonathan may have a better showing in Saturday’s presidential election in the South-South, South-East, and the FCT while Buhari may poll more votes in North-West and North-East. South-West and North-Central remain largely the battle ground that may swing victory either way. A new dimension to the social dynamics is the fact that enthusiasts for the restructuring of the Nigerian state in this category may find exciting, the steps just taken by President Jonathan to ensure the implementation of the recommendation of the National Conference. This would be a plus for the President’s candidacy.
The analysis also indicated that primary primordial factors like ethnic affiliations, religion and social class may be the influencing factor in the polls.
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