Wednesday, 8 April 2015

In North-West, APC holds the aces

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After the 1999 elections, the leading opposition party, which was then known as All Peoples Party (APP), swept the North-West zone. Of the seven states in the zone, the defunct APP controlled four (Kebbi, Zamfara, Sokoto and Jigawa), leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with Kano, Katsina and Kaduna.
By 2003 however, the tally increased, in favour of the opposition, which had then metamorphosed into All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), as it added Kano to its kitty.
But at the beginning of 2007, the scenario changed, as PDP became the leading party in the zone, following the defection of the then Kebbi State governor, Adamu Aliero and the then Sokoto State deputy governor, Aliyu Wamakko, to the PDP. The party also won Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. And later that year, Zamfara, which had earlier been won by the opposition, fell, through the defection of the then governor, Mahmuda Shinkafi, to the PDP, thus, leaving Kano as the only State in the zone, in the hands of the opposition.
Following the 2011 elections however, while Kano was returned to the PDP, Zamfara was equally returned to the opposition. At the end of the seven states in the zone, PDP had six, and the opposition which has since metamorphosed into the All Progressives Congress (APC), had just one, courtesy of Zamfara State.
The situation remained the same until crisis broke out in the PDP in 2013, which saw two states, Kano and Sokoto, returning to the opposition through the defection of their governors. Therefore, as at today, PDP controls Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina and Kebbi, while the APC, is in charge of Zamfara, Kano and Sokoto.
As the two parties go into the April 11 governorship elections, our correspondents from across the States, in the zone, x-ray the chances of the two leading parties.
Kaduna
From Kaduna State, Noah Ebije, reports that as it is said in local parlance, when an elephant is being drowned in a river, the hope of a tortoise attempting to cross same river becomes slim.
This, in fact, could be equated with the political situation in Kaduna as regards the forthcoming gubernatorial race, particularly between the ruling PDP and the APC.
The just-concluded presidential and the National Assembly elections where APC carried the day was a strong indication that the PDP in Kaduna State has a herculean, if not impossible task, to win the race.
The two contenders in the race are the incumbent Governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero of the PDP, and the former Minister of FCT, Malam Nasir El-Rufai.
Out of the three senatorial zones in the state, APC won two, which are Kaduna North and Kaduna Central, while PDP won Southern Kaduna senatorial district.
More worrisome forn the PDP in Kaduna State was the fact that even though Vice President Namadi Sambo’s promise to deliver over two million votes to President Goodluck Jonathan in the presidential election, the reverse was the case as General Muhammadu Buhari of the APC floored Jonathan with 1,127, 760 votes, to PDP’s 484,085 votes.
This trend, sharply contrasts what happened in 2011 when Buhari defeated Jonathan, with over 200,000 votes. Although, the PDP has always banked on the Southern Kaduna, to give it block votes, and had always decided the party’s fate. In 2011, late Patrick Yakowa’s victory votes came from Kaduna Central, courtesy of Suleiman Hunkuyi.
Today, Hunkyi is back to the APC, and he is the Senator-elect for Kaduna North Senatorial District. Again, the performance put up by Southern Kaduna, where it was only able to deliver a little over 300, 000 votes in the presidential race, as against the over one million it delivered in 2011, makes the gubernatorial race, a very tight one for the PDP.
Significantly, there are about five Councils in Kaduna Central, whose total votes are just about half of the entire votes in Kaduna State. These Councils are APC’s strongholds. They include: Kaduna North, Kaduna South, Zaria, Igabi and Sabon-Gari. Therefore, with El-Rufai’s running mate, Architect Bala Bantex, a former Council chairman and former House of Representatives member, bringing in two or more Councils from the Southern Kaduna Senatorial District, the APC, would have no difficulty, coasting to victory.
The Buhari’s victory is expected to further increase the chances of the party at the polls. Verdict: Kaduna- APC.
Zamfara
From Gusau, Zamfara State capital, Attahiru Ahmed, reports that what is going to play out could be likened to what is known in football as  “return leg.” This is so because, PDP candidate, Mahmuda Shinkafi, who was beaten silly by the incumbent, AbdulAziz Yari, at the polls in 2011 is the same man that would be slugging it out, with the incumbent this time around.
Although, Aliyu Gusau, the Defence minister hails from the State, and he is of the PDP, historically speaking, since 1999, PDP, has never won the State. Therefore, this election too, cannot produce anything different. Besides, the Buhari’s victory at the polls would come in handy to further nail the PDP’s coffin in the State.
Ironically, Shinkafi’s first coming in 2007 was adjudged by many, as remarkable. He had assumed office with a passionate resolve to build infrastructure in the state, a thing that was allegedly neglected by his predecessor.
And he performed so well within his first year in office so much so that his administration earned the sobriquet of “A Gani A Kasa”, meaning “project of reality, which we can see on ground.” But if those good works could not earn him a second term, in 2011 when the memory of the good works was still fresh in the minds of the electorates, it is unlikely, if it would count for him, four years after leaving the office.
Verdict: Zamfara- APC
Katsina
In Katsina, Andy Asemota reports that the odds also favour the APC, despite the fact that PDP, is in control of the state.
The 2015 governorship race in Katsina state is a two horse race, though four candidates are in queue to succeed Governor Ibrahim Shema. The real gladiators are former Speaker of the House of Representatives and candidate of the APC, Aminu Masari, and his PDP counterpart, Musa Nashuni. Others are the flag bearers of APGA and PDM, Umaru Abdullahi Tsauri (Tata) and Senator Yakubu Lado Danmarke.
Masari:
Aminu Masari has featured in virtually all elections since the inception of the present democratic dispensation. He was a member of the lower chamber and later a Speaker. His bid to succeed Umar Musa Yar’Adua in 2007 was truncated at the PDP primary.
He contested against Shema after four years again, on the platform of the defunct CPC, but lost the election. But the APC chieftain has a new structure that could wrest power from PDP on April 11.
Masari is considered the toughest threat to PDP maintaining its grip on power in Katsina since 1999. The political fireworks that have commenced would not abate in the State after the APC cleared all the National Assembly seats in the March 28 polls.
Another factor counting in his favour that is not a secret is the overall acceptance and popularity of the Katsina State born President-elect, General Muhammadu Buhari. The acceptance and popularity of Buhari in Katsina, is second to none nationwide.
TheNashuni:
Musa Nashuni jump started his political career at the governorship level as Shema’s anointed candidate.
In a twinkle of an eye, the former commissioner’s entry into the governorship race altered all previous permutations concerning the race.
Two major things that would count for him on April 11 are his godfather, Shema, and his tall stature as a prudent intellectual. His main minus is that he is a new entrant into politics but the decisive influence of the outcome of March 28 presidential election could mar his ambition.
Nashuni boasts of, more than any other gubernatorial candidate, stakeholders in the State who are either influential or have strong structures. But his most ardent supporters would however admit that he is facing the challenge of his life in an uphill struggle to stop hurricane Buhari, against all odds.
Although, in spite of the fact that the defunct CPC swept the polls in Katsina in 2011, during the National Assembly and Presidential elections, Shema still won the governorship, the protest votes from the CPC then, which gave Shema victory, would be missing this time around, as there are no aggrieved party members in the APC, that could cause such an upset. Verdict: Katsina- APC
Kebbi
In Kebbi, like in most states in the North-West zone, the PDP walks a tight rope. Although the PDP, since 2007 when it seized power in the state has worked very hard to retain it, all those who consummated the arrangement that led the PDP into winning the state, in the first instance have all returned to the opposition where they belong.
Besides, the Argungu Emirate where  a serving Senator, Isah Galaudu comes from is very bitter with outgoing Governor, Saidu Dakingari, for refusing to zone PDP’s governorship ticket to the zone, the party’s running mate, coming from the zone, notwithstanding. To further rob salt on the zone’s injury, the Senate it has, was taken over from it, by the governor. But the governor has since lost his bid to go to the Senate, after suffering a monumental defeat in the hands of the APC.
General Sarkin Yaki Bello of the PDP is expected to slug it out with Senator Atiku Bagudu of the APC. Bagudu, formerly of the PDP had teamed up with Dakingari, in 2011, when Senator Aliero and others attempted to unseat the governor, after he (Dakingari) fell out with Aliero.
But today, Bagudu and Aliero are back together. As such, it would be an uphill task for Dakingari to survive the APC onslaught. The APC’s recent victory in the state, during the last presidential and National Assembly elections, may have further compounded the PDP’s headache in the state. The long list of aggrieved members of the PDP, some of whom have not defected to the APC but are just in the party to further wreck it would compound PDP’s problems during the governorship election in the State. All these, would no doubt, make it very easy for the APC to coast to victory.
Verdict: Kebbi- APC
Sokoto
If President Goodluck Jonathan had won the last Presidential election, and with a good showing in Sokoto during the said election, it would have been safe to describe the State, as one being close to call, ahead of the governorship elections.
But the APC’s performance at the last elections is a clear indication that Sokoto, would remain in the opposition’s kitty, in spite of the fact that the State, is one of the States in the North-West, that the ruling PDP, is desirous in “capturing.”
Originally, from the start of the country’s current democratic journey, which began in 1999, the State was one of the strongest signposts of then opposition, the All Peoples Party (APP), which later metamorphosed into the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).
But towards the tail end of the eight years rule of the then governor, Attahiru Bafarawa, he felt out with his deputy, the incumbent governor, Aliyu Wamakko. And Wamakko, who was then prepared to run for the governorship on the platform of the party, since Bafarawa had moved to another party-Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), was approached by the PDP, and he became the party’s candidate for the 2007 poll.
Before Wamakko’s entry, former Water Resources minister, Mukhtari Shagari, who later became Wamakko’s running mate, had won the PDP’s governorship ticket.
By his own calculation, he had thought that after serving as a deputy governor for about eight years now, and coupled with the fact that he refused to dump the party like his boss, for the APC, the PDP would give him the party’s ticket on a platter of gold. But that was not to be.
And so, he is aggrieved. Although, he has since rejoined the campaign team of the party’s governorship candidate, Senator Abdallah Wali, pioneer Senate leader of the country’s current democratic experiment, their abysmal performance in the March 28 elections in the State, further confirmed APC’s superior fire power, over the PDP.
Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, who incidentally, was a one- time Senior Legislative aide to Wali, and who is the standard bearer of the APC, is good to carry the day.
The strong speculation making the rounds in the State that the PDP, would unseat the Sultan of Sokoto, should the party be allowed to come to power, is working seriously against the party in the State. This is in spite of the fact that Senator Wali, has continued to seize every occasion provided him, to tell the electorate that he had no plan to work against the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar. He said those peddling the false information, were only raising a false alarm.
Verdict: Sokoto- APC
Kano
In Kano, the contest is between APC’s Dr. Umar Gunduje and PDP’s Mallam Sagir Takai. Gunduje, is the current deputy governor to Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of Kano.
In Nigeria’s political history, Kwankwaso would be the second governor, to give his deputy, an opportunity to succeed him. The first person to record the feat was Senator Sani Yerima, the then Zamfara governor, who after eight years in office provided the platform in 2007, for his deputy, Mahmuda Shinkafi, to succeed him.
Kwankwaso has no doubt succeeded in building a political movement in Kano State. But no matter how strong the movement may appear, the Buhari factor, has also helped him to maintain a winning streak in Kano, since his surprise return in 2011, in spite of a big wedge placed on his path, by the PDP chieftains, from both within and outside the State.
Buhari factor sent him packing in 2003, when he sought re-election. Buhari factor also helped him to return to power in 2011 after his nemesis then, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, fell out with Buhari, before the 2011 polls. Therefore, the same Buhari factor, coupled with Kwankwaso’s outstanding performance, would no doubt; make APC’s victory over the PDP double sure. Besides, the old PDP members are also angry that the governorship ticket went to a new entrant. All these, make it difficult to give the PDP, any chance, in the forthcoming governorship polls.
Verdict: Kano- APC
Jigawa
If the PDP is likely to retain any state, in the North-West zone after the 2015 governorship election, it is Jigawa State. This is so because, what played out at the last National Assembly and Presidential elections in the state, was not too different from what happened in 2011, when Lamido went ahead to win the governorship, in spite of PDP’s loss at the presidential election in the state.
Although, in 2011, the gap between Buhari and Jonathan was about 200, 000 votes, unlike now that the difference is about 700, 000 votes, the mere fact that most Jigawa people are aware that the APC’s governorship candidate, Alhaji Mohammad Badaru Abubakar, is being sponsored by Attahiru Bafarawa of the PDP, from Sokoto State, would make it a bit difficult for him to sail through.
Also running with Barrister Ibrahim Hassan Hadejia, former governor Saminu Turaki’s deputy governor, would come as a big minus for him. It is common knowledge in Jigawa today that but for Sule Lamido, Jigawa may not have come in contact with what is called governance in the true sense of it, as Turaki, was alleged to have virtually run the state aground.
The edge the PDP has over the APC, in the governorship is that the PDP’s candidate, Aminu Ibrahim Ringim, like Lamido, is grounded in the ideals of politics of the Talakawas (pro-masses), as he is well schooled in the ideals of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), a thing that also made Lamido stand out, whereas, the APC’s candidate, is more of a businessman.
The PDP’s running mate too, is expected to add value to the ticket. He is the immediate past Supervising minister for Information, Dr. Nurudeen Mohammed.
A man in his mid 30s, Dr. Mohammed is expected to attract the young minds to the ticket. And having carried out a rigorous campaign for the governorship, with Lamido, leading the trail, the PDP, would likely run away with victory, in Jigawa State, in the April 11, contest, as the electorate would not want the gains recorded during the Lamido’s administration, reversed by any business man, who knows little or nothing about the Talakawas of the north. Verdict: Jigawa- PDP.

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