BY RAZAQ BAMIDELE (LAGOS), ISMAIL OMIPIDAN (KADUNA), CHIDI NNADI (ENUGU), FEMI FOLARANMI (YENAGOA), TONY OSASUO (BENIN) NDUBUISI ORJI AND CHINELO OBOGO (LAGOS)
In the next 48 hours, Nigerians will troop out, once again, to elect a president that will steer the ship of state for the next four years. The election, which was initially scheduled for Saturday, February 14, 2015, was shifted by six weeks, to now hold on March 28, 2015.
In postponing the election, the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega, said it was relying on the advise of security chiefs, who, after assessing the security situation in the country, asked for about six weeks to decisively address the activities of Boko Haram in the North East. However, apart from this excuse, it was obvious that the INEC was not ready for the elections, as millions of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) were yet to be printed, while millions of the printed ones were yet to be distributed. By February, barely 60 per cent of registered voters had collected their PVCs.
Although, 14 political parties fielded presidential candidates, only two of them are serious and formidable in the race. The two top contenders for the coveted seat of president are the sitting President, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, who is seeking a mandate for a second term in office on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and former military Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
As it is, the die is cast for the presidential election and the battle is between Jonathan and Buhari.
The registered voters
As at March 17, the number of voters registered for the poll by the INEC stood at 68, 833, 476. Out of this number, INEC has distributed 56, 350, 776, PVCs, which is 81.87 per cent.
A critical scrutiny of the PVC distribution shows that the North-West geo-political zone tops the list with 15, 999, 398 PVCs, while the South-West follows with 9, 164, 719. Other zones trail them from the rear, thus: South-South: 8, 411, 616; North-Central: 7, 661, 584; North-East, 6, 651, 719; South-East, 6, 621, 541 and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, 56, 350.
From the distribution of PVCs and the number of registered voters, North West has the highest voters (15, 999, 398), while South East has the least (6, 621, 541). The North, as a group, made up of North East, North West and North Central, has a total number of voters of 30, 312, 701, while the South, comprising South West, South east and South South has 24, 197, 876 registered voters.
THE STATES AND GOVERNMENT CONTROL
At present, the PDP has 21 governors, while APC has 14 governors. The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) has one state. The PDP has governors in: Enugu, Abia, Bayelsa, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Ekiti, Ondo, Benue, Plateau, Kogi, Kebbi, Adamawa, Ebonyi, Kaduna, Taraba, Gombe, Jigawa, Niger, Katsina, Delta and Bauchi.
The APC: Lagos, Osun, Oyo, Ogun, Edo, Rivers, Yobe, Borno, Imo, Kwara, Nasarawa, Kano, Sokoto and Zamfara. APGA controls Anambra.
Analysis of the states controlled by the PDP shows this: South East (3 states out of 5), North Central (4 states out of 6), South South (4 states out of 6), North West (4 states out of 7), North East (4 states out of 6), South West (2 states out of 6). APC standing is: South East (one states out of 5), North Central (2 states out of 6), South South (2 states out of 6), North West (3 states out of 7), North East (2 states out of 6), South West (4 states out of 6). The governors will play a role in the outcome of the elevction. Where this happens, the PDP may not lose worfully in North East and North West, which are zones where many are rooting for Buhari owing to the fact that he’s from the North and a Muslim.
THE ALLIANCES
With the merger of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Buhari’s former political party, which has North’s support, with the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which also has North support and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which is firmly on the ground in the South West, to produce the APC, there is a clear North West, North East/South West alliance. For the PDP, there appears to be a South East, South South and North Central alliance.
STATE-BY-STATE ANALYSIS OF THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF THE PDP AND APC
SOUTH-WEST
LAGOS
In Lagos State, APC controls the government and the legislature. Also, the national leader of the party, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, hails from the state. With this, it is tempting to predict APC victory in the state on Saturday. For one, the progressives have been ruling the state since 1999, while the majority of the people seem to have adopted the party as their own.
Beside, some structures on ground appear formidable to help Buhari. Indeed, one of the factors in favour of the APC in the state is the performance of the Governor Babatunde Fashola administration. Also, the fact that President General of Market Women and Men Association of Nigeria, Chief Folashade Tinubu-Ojo, is the daughter of Tinubu is an advantage, as market women, especially from the Yoruba stock, may most likely align with APC.
However, the emergence of Mr. Jimi Agbaje as governorship candidate of PDP is a plus for the ruling party. His emergence has raised the hope of PDP, especially with the settling of the right between him and Musliu Obanikoro, who he defeated at the governorship primaries. Chief Bode George, who hails from the state, is also a factor. The population of non-indigenes in Lagos is a factor that appears working for the PDP, especially as the Igbo and minorities have tilted toward Jonathan. If the non-indigenes stay to vote in Lagos, this wll count for Jonathan.
Taking all these factors into consideration, Lagos State looks too close to call for Jonathan and Buhari. Indeed, it’s a 50-50 situation.
Verdict: Too close to call.
OYO
The situation in Oyo State presently has made it difficult to predict with accuracy the outcome of Saturday’s election would be. As of now, four different political parties and their governorship candidate are canvassing votes for Jonathan, having adopted him as their presidential candidates. The parties and their candidates are: Accord Party of Senator Rasidi Ladoja, Labour Party of Christopher Adebayo Alao- Akala, Social Democratic Party (SDP) of Engineer Seyi Makinde, and Teslim Folarin of the PDP. This gives PDP an edge.
A major minus for the APC in the state is that the party has lost all its senators to other parties, like Labour and PDP. Senator Olufemi Lanlehin, who contested on its platform in 2011, is now with Accord Party. It will not, therefore, be a surprise if PDP gives the APC the run for its money in the state.
Verdict: Too close to call.
OSUN
In Osun State, APC is firmly on ground. This was manifest last year when Governor Rauf Aregbesola was re-elected. The presence of former governors of the state, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Senator Isiaka Adeleke is also an advantage for APC. All this will work for Buhari.
However, the fighting spirit of such PDP members as Senator Iyiola Omisore, and the Minister of Police Affairs, Jelili Adesiyan could help the PDP. In final analysis, APC will clinch Osun for Buhari. However, Jonathan may run away with 25 percent of the total votes cast.
Verdict: Buhari looks good to win.
EKITI
Since the return of Governor Peter Ayodele Fayose as governor, he has been turning the heat on the opposition party and virtually running it out of town. With his grip on the affairs of the state and PDP, Jonathan may coast home victoriously. As the presence of the Minister of State for Works, Prince Dayo Adeyeye and Senator Ayo Arise, whose town, Oye Ekiti, benefited from the 12 federal universities established by Jonathan administration, will help PDP.
However, one may not lose sight of the crisis that rocked the PDP to its foundation during its primaries last year, coupled with the fact that APC members are in the majority in the State House of Assembly. If their supporters decide to vote against Jonathan, he may not find it easy. Another factor against the PDP in the state is the returning of Hon Michael Opeyemi Bamidele, the former governorship candidate of the Labour Party in the last year election to the APC.
The Iyin Ekiti-born House of Representatives member is also a formidable grassroots mobiliser with great followership. If he combines his efforts with other APC leaders in the state, like the two former governors of the state, Niyi Adebayo, Olusegun Oni and Kayode Fayemi, there will be a great battle in that state on Saturday.
Verdict: Jonathan looks good to win.
ONDO
When Governor Olusegun Mimiko was in Labour Party he effectively control the political structures in the state. This explains why he won a second term. Now that he’s in PDP, having defected with all elected senators and members of the House of Representatives and state House of Assembly, his influence cannot be wished away.
To show his clout, Mimiko has been the arrowhead of the mobilization of Yoruba elders to either endorse Jonathan or insist on the implementation of the report of the national conference, which is expected to put the South West in good standing in Nigeria, especially with the restructuring recommendation.
However, the shockwaves created by Mimiko’s defection in PDP is an issue, as some topshots of the party in the state were not happy that the structure was handed over to someone they consider as a “joiner.” Indeed, this led to the defection of a lot of them to the APC.
All things considered, if the antecedents of Mimiko are taking into account, remembering that he defected from PDP to Labour Party, in 2011, a few months to the election and clinch the governorship seat, although after a long court case, he will most likely deliver the state to Jonathan. The fact that he also easily won re-election adds impetus to this.
Verdict: Although the race looks too close to call, Jonathan may win.
OGUN
In Ogun State, Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s popularity is never in doubt. In recent time, he has raised the campaign bar through which he is showcasing his landmark achievements. He has been utilising the opportunity to sell the candidature of Buhari to his people. He has been telling them that what they are witnessing in Ogun, in term of good governance, would be replicated in multiple folds if they vote for Buhari to become president and his people appear to believe him.
However, Buhari’s victory may not be a smooth ride because of the crisis in the state chapter of the APC, which was not managed well. The crisis led to the defection of notable politicians in the state to the Social Democratic Party (SDP).
A political heavyweight, like the former governor of the state, Aremo Olusegun Osoba, walked out on the APC, likewise senators Adegbenga Kaka and Odunsi, who is now the state governorship candidate of the SDP. The problem this mistake is having on the APC is that the SDP, which has no presidential candidate, is rooting for Jonathan.
Also to work for Jonathan is the presence of former Governor Gbenga Daniel, Senator Jibril Martins Kuye and Chief Buruji Kashamu in the PDP. These politicians are putting everything to deliver the state to Jonathan. But the body language of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, which favours Buhari, would help the APC.
Verdict: Ogun will vote Buhari, but Jonathan will get 25 per cent.
NORTH-EAST
ADAMAWA
In 2003 and 2011, PDP won the state before the defection of impeached Governor Murtala Nyako. When Nyako defected to APC, most members of the PDP refused to move with him. Also, former deputy governor refused to defect to APC. This makes Adamawa largely PDP state. Despite the fact that then Governor Nyako was in APC.
This can explain why it was easy for the state House of Assembly to impeach Nyako. And with the resignation of the former deputy governor before Nyako’s impeachment, the Speaker stepped in as acting governor. However, the court’s ruling that the original deputy governor, Ngilari, was improperly impeached and therefore should be sworn in as governor solidifies PDP’s hold in the state.
However, a lot of water has passed under the bridge. The emergence of former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crime Commission (EFCC), Mallam Nuhu Ribadu as the PDP governorship candidate did not go down well with some PDP members.
Indeed, the fact that Governor Ngilari was not given the ticket is something many people have not come to terms with. Also, the removal of Bamanga Tukur as PDP chairman will have its effect too. All these will affect the fortune of Jonathan in the election.
For the APC, the presence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in APC will help Buhari. Also to APC advantage, is the bitterness of some voters over the impeachment of for Nyako. Security is also an issue, as Adamawa is one of the states insurgents have ravaged.
Verdict: Jonathan looks good to clinch the state. However, he will not record a landslide victory. The result maybe 60/40 percent in favour of Jonathan over Buhari.
YOBE
Traditionally since 1999, Yobe State is an opposition party. Senator Buka Abba Ibrahim of the All Peoples Party (APP), which became All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), ruled the state for eight years. Now the APC is in control.
Verdict: The state is Buhari to take.
TARABA
Religion will play a role in the outcome of Saturday election in the state. The state is predominantly Christians. But the crisis within the PDP may affect the party negatively a bit. The refusal of the state to confirm the deputy governor as governor since the plane crash that has incapacitated the Governor Suntai is also part of the crisis. But the state is largely PDP.
Verdict: Jonathan will win the state with a slim margin.
BORNO
Just like Yobe, Borno has been an opposition state since 1999. And since 2003, when Buhari started contesting, for president, he has been winning the state. Saturday’s election may not likely to be different. Buhari is well loved in the state. Not even the membership of former Governor Ali Modu Sheriff will swing it for PDP. However, PDP will not be disgraced totally.
Verdict: Buhari looks good to win.
BAUCHI
In the 2011 presidential election, Jonathan lost the state. The picture looks the same in Saturday’s election, especially with the division in PDP. Following the rivalry between Governor Isa Yuguda and Alhaji Mala Mohammed, minister of the federal capital territory. Which was visible when Jonathan went to campaign in the state. The fact that Alhaji Mu’azu, former governor of the state, is the PDP chairman may not change the tide in favour of Jonathan. This is so because Mu’azu does not seem to have much political clout, in the state. In 2003, he was roundly defeated by Yuguda who was in ANPP then. In fact, the ANPP took the governorship seat and stopped Mu’azu from going to the Senate.
Verdict: Buhari will win. However, Jonathan will get 25 per cent.
GOMBE
In Gombe State, power of incumbency of Governor Ibrahim Dankwabo will give Buhari a tough time against Jonathan. If that is combined with support from Senator Idris Umar, the Minister of Transportation, the contest appears tough but because of the thinking of an average northerners that power should come back to them, Buhari may likely run away with very slim victory.
Verdict: Give it to Buhari
NORTH-CENTRAL
NASARAWA
The APC has a governor in the state. However, Jonathan triumphed in the state in 2011. However, many things have changed. Now, Buhari has built the APC well in the state. This coupled with the failed attempt to impeach Governor Tanko Almakura last year. Also the fact that former Minister of Information and Communication, Mr. Labaran Maku, could not get PDP ticket and therefore defected to APGA, is a minus for the ruling PDP. On a good day, Buhari will walk home with victory song.
Verdict: It’s Buhari’s state.
PLATEAU
The state is largely a Christian state and has been under the control of PDP since 1999. Here religious sentiment will come into play, which gives Jonathan an edge. However, the crisis in the state PDP over the jettisoning of the zoning arrangement would take a little toll on the party. Buhari will, in any case, get 25 per cent.
Verdict: Jonathan will win here/
BENUE
Traditionally, Benue is a PDP state. It’s also the home state of Senate President David Mark, which is an advantage. From the looks of things, Jonathan will still win the state, but not with a wide margin. The APC will get more than 25 per cent because the crisis that rocked the state chapter of PDP caused the defection of one-time PDP national chairman, Barnaba Gemade and Joseph Waku to the APC. Besides that, Senator George Akume’s popularity within his Tiv enclave is a source of worry for the PDP.
Verdict: Since religion will play a serious role here, Jonathan will likely take the state.
NIGER STATE
In 2011, Buhari won the state hands down, even when the PDP was intact. He is likely to repeat the feat now that the party is in crisis. Not too long ago, Deputy Governor to Babangida Aliyu defected to the APC with his followers. The shout of “Sai Buhari, Sai Baba,” is a common slogan across the state. However, Governor Aliyu appears determined to redeem himself, over the 2011 defeat on PDP in the presidential election. This is moreso since he has come out to campaign for Jonathan, insisting that his refusal to defect to APC was because he believes in the party. His effort will give Jonathan 25 per cent,.
Verdict: Buhari will win.
KWARA
The defection of the former governor of the state, now a senator, Dr. Bukola Saraki, from the PDP to APC has change the political calculation of the state. Saraki defected with all the political principals in the state, like members of the House of Assembly, the state Governor, Abdulfatah Ahmed, all political appointees as well as local governments functionaries, like the chairmen and the councilors.
Although, some stakeholders in the state may not want to betray the late strong man of Kwara politics, Dr. Olusola Saraki, who they admitted was an unforgettable benefactor, by abandoning his heir apparent, Bukola, a few still think that it is time to break out of the claws of what they call Saraki Dynasty. However, the outstanding performance of Bukola Saraki as governor, coupled with Ahmed’s heartwarming achievements has put the APC on the lead in the state. The crowd that always throngs APC rallies in Kwara State is a testimony that Buhari is the man to beat on Saturday.
Verdict: Give it to Buhari
KOGI
This state is difficult to predict, as a couple of factors will come to play here. One of the factors is the proximity of the state to the North, the region that is believed to have sympathy with Buhari. Another factor is the population of the Okun Yoruba, whose minds are inclined towards their kinsmen in the South-West and by implication, the APC. With this, one cannot safely give either of them outright victory. But the contest will be keen, fierce. But, going by the power of incumbency and the factor of the federal might, Jonathan is likely to work away with slim victory.
Verdict: Too close to call, but Jonathan has an edge.
NORTH-WEST
SOKOTO
This Caliphate seat is as good as comfort zone for Buhari and his APC. Governor Maigatakrda Aliyu Wamakko, who enjoys cult followership in the state, will deliver Sokoto to APC. If his effort is combined with that of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Tambuwal, Buhari will win comfortably. This is notwithstanding the presence of the presence of former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa and the current estranged deputy governor, Mukhtar Shagari.
Verdict: Buhari will win.
ZAMFARA
Traditionally, Zamfara State, created in 1996. has been an opposition state since the inception of the current democratic experiment. Ahmed Sani Yerima, now a senator, governed the state for eight years, from 1999 to 2003, on the platform of the APP/ANPP.
Even when his deputy, Mahmud Shinkafi, who succeeded in 2003, defected to the PDP, he was booted out of office in the subsequent election. APC is on solid ground here.
Verdict: Give it to Buhari.
KEBBI
Just like Zamfara, Kebbi also started as an opposition party in 1999 when Adamu Aliero governed the state on the ticket of the APP/ANPP. Things started to change when he felt out with his successor after their defection to the PDP in 2007. Aliero became a senator and later made a minister in charge of the FCT in the Umaru Yar’Adua administration. Though the state is now PDP, the crisis in the party in the state caused by the enmity between Aliero and his successor, Saidu Dakingari, as well as religion factor will give Buhari the state.
Verdict: Kebbi State is for Buhari.
KANO
In Kano state, Buhari is literally worshipped. He has a cult followership in the state that has the second largest number of registered voters. In addition to that, the popularity of Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso among the people is overwhelming. He won all the 44 local government elections and even came second behind Buhari during the APC presidential primaries in Lagos. In addition to that, the recent defection of the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ghali Na’Abba, is a plus for Buhari.
However, the presence of Education Minister, and former governor of the state, Mallam Ibrahim Shakarau in PDP will give the party votes. Here Jonathan is guaranteed 25 per cent, especially with the large number of non-indigenes in the state.
Verdict: Buhari will win.
KADUNA
This is the home state of Vice President Namadi Sambo, but he has always had a tough time during elections. In the 2011, he lost in his ward, as Buhari won the state. However, of late Sambo has worked hard to mobilise PDP and voters for Jonathan in the state. And former Governor Markarfi is also a factor that would sway votes in Jonathan’s favour. Since religious will come to play in the state, Jonathan stand a chance, as Christians may align with him.
Verdict: It’s too close to call.
KATSINA
The APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, hails from this state. He was born in the ancient town of Daura. It is taken for granted that Buhari, as the son of the soil, will carry the day on Saturday. In 2011, he coasted home in his state. The fact that former Speaker, House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari, is the APC governorship candidate adds impetus to Buhari’s chances.
However, Governor Ibrahim Shema has performed well in eight years. Whether this will give Jonathan 25 per cent is a matter of conjecture.
Verdict: Buhari will have the day.
JIGAWA
Jigawa State was carved out of the old Kano State. It’s tempting to say that the state will likely go the way of Kano. However, Governor Sule Lamido may put in some effort for Jonathan. The governor refused to defect to APC two years ago, even when he had some misgivings about PDP.
Verdict: Give it to Buhari, but Jonathan will get 25 per cent.
SOUTH-EAST
EBONYI
Although there’s crisis in PDP in the state, Ebonyi State remains PDP state. The deputy governor and PDP governorship candidate, Dave Umahi and Senate President and Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Senator Anyim Pius Anyim are solidly for PDP. Although Governor Elechi’s supporters are now in Labour Party owing to the outcome of the PDP governorship primaries, he had pledged to work for Jonathan. This makes the chances of Jonathan bright.
Verdict: Jonathan will win.
ENUGU
In Enugu State, Jonathan holds the aces. This is so because the state boasts of many bigwigs in PDP. There’s Governor Sullivan Chime. There’s Deputy Senate President Ike Ekeremadu. There’s Minister of Power, Prof Chinedu Nebo. There’s also former PDP national chairman, Okwesilieze Nwodo. And the state has a popular governorship candidate, Hon Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi. With this and couple with the fact that Igbo have shown preference to the president, Jonathan look good to win.
Verdict: It’s Jonathan’s state.
IMO
The state is controlled by APC, but most people are not happy that Governor Rochas Okorocha dumped APGA through which he cane to power for APC. Also, the sentiment among Igbo that Jonathan is their neighbour, coming from Bayelsa, will affect the fortunes of APC. This is couple with the fact that Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives and PDP governorship candidate, Emeka Ihedioha, is popular. Also, such big names as former Governor Ikedi Ohakim, Senator Ifeanyi Araraume will bolster PDP chances.
Verdict: Jonathan will win.
ANAMBRA
Although Anambra had an APGA governor and many lawmakers, the state is for Jonathan. This is so because the APHA had endorsed Jonathan as its adopted presidential candidate. The defection of former Governor Peter Obi from APGA to PDP is an added tonic for the ruling party. Also the presence of such political heavyweights as Chief Arthur Eze, Senator Andy Uba, Dr. Ifeanyi Uba, Chief Chris Ubah and Dr. Obinna Uzoh makes PDP string in Anambra.
Verdict: Jonathan will win.
ABIA
In Abia, Jonathan stands a good a chance despite the poor performance of Governor Theodore Orji. This is so because former state governor, Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu, who is running for Senate on the platform of the Peoples Progressives Alliance (PPA) is working to ensure victory for Jonathan in the state. Also, the fact that APGA and PPA, which have good governorship candidates, are also campaigning for him makes his victory guaranteed.
Verdict: Jonathan will win.
SOUTH-SOUTH
BAYELSA
In the 2015 presidential election, Bayelsa State voted overwhelming for the PDP. This will be repeated together for obvious reason. President Jonathan is from the state. Indeed, since 1999, Bayelsa has remained a PDP state and has been able to ward off opposition parties from making any inroads into the state. Despite the fact that former Governor Timipre Sylva and his supporters dumped the PDP as well as the crisis engulfing the party following the National Assembly and State House of Assembly primaries, there doesn’t appear to be much threat.
However, Brass Local Government may pose a headache for the PDP because of sympathy votes for Sylva, who is the APC Bayelsa East senatorial district candidate. In the council, the non-completion and take-off of the Brass Liquefied Natural Gas (Brass LNG) is being used as a campaign weapon against the PDP and President Jonathan. According to the APC, Jonathan is not interested in completing the project because it is not located in his Ogbia Local Government Area, where they said he has located most federal projects he attracted to the state. This same argument has been stretched further by former Nigerian Ambassador to Venezuela, Senator Felix Oboro, who was recalled by President Jonathan. Oboro who was the Secretary to the State Government when Jonathan was deputy to former Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha.
The people are however not persuaded by this argument, as Governor Henry Seriake Dickson and the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN) led by Hon Wenipre Seibarugu have neutralised the effects of the anti-Ijaw campaign by the APC. The governor has been meeting with several groups and youth bodies in the state canvassing for votes for President Jonathan. A few days ago, Dickson’s efforts paid off as the Conference of National Political Parties (CNPP) led by its Chairman, Mr. Lucky Apeli, endorsed Jonathan for another term of four years.
Verdict: PDP would win landslide in Bayelsa.
RIVERS
The state was PDP at the inception before the Governor Chibuike Amaechi defected to the APC, with all his supporters. Since then, crisis has not left the doorstep of the state. The defection has pitted the President and his wife, Patience, in a battle of wits with Amaechi. Lately, the crisis has resumed a frightening dimension with series of violence in the state. However, it seems, PDP has an upper hand, with the determination of former Minister of Education and PDP governorship candidate, Nysome Wike, backed by former militants from the state. The APC suffered a setback early this week when Amaechi’s deputy, Tele Ikuru, returned to the PDP, accusing APC and members of some malfeasance.
Verdict: Jonathan will win.
EDO
As it is well known, the PDP was in charge and control of the state for 10 years until the landmark judgment of the Court of Appeal, which declared Comrade Adams Oshiomhole winner of the 2007 governorship election. The judgment was delivered on November 12, 2008.
Since then, a new order under Action Congress and later Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) got entrenched in Edo State.
However, the ACN which metamorphosed into APC, following the merger of four main political parties, showed early signs of stress in Edo arising from its ward and local government congresses. Those who felt their political ambition and interests would not be met in the new party order and equation, left with many of their followers to pitch tent with the PDP, thereby creating what appeared like near balance of forces between APC and PDP in the run up to the presidential campaigns.
But it was not too long when those who left the APC for the PDP started returning to the APC, while a handful of others joined other political parties when they realised that their interests could not be catered for in the PDP, thereby creating a new balance of forces, which how tilts in favour of the APC in the run up to the general elections.
In the main, the issues that will decide the pattern of voting are the strength of the parties, whether the voters have decided to go with continuity or change and geopolitical factor. On the strength of the political parties, the APC has an edge over the PDP because it currently controls the state. Added to this, is the widely acknowledged impressive performance of Governor Oshiomhole in office.
If the recent elections held in the state are anything to go by, then APC and Buhari will carry the day. Nevertheless, the PDP is expected to record a strong showing, arising from added strength of those who decamped from the APC to join its ranks.
As expected, such show of strength for the PDP would be most noticeable in the central senatorial district of the state, which has had federal patronage the most, in terms of appointments. On whether the voters have decided to go with continuity or change, the scenario on ground indicates that the people will vote for change.
Discussions among passengers in commercial buses and taxis point in this direction.
Verdict: Baring any upset, the APC and Buhari will run away with victory in Edo.
AKWA IBOM
Traditionally, Akwa Ibom is a PDP State. In addition to that, the state Governor, Godswill Akpabio is the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum, which will make the task before Buhari and his APC a Herculean task. However, the event in the recent time has strengthened the resolve of the APC that there is hope.
The primaries of the PDP generated a lot of bad blood, which made some aggrieved members decamp to the APC. Just last week, some former PDP bigwigs started campaigning openly for the APC governorship in the state, Umana Umana. All said and done, PDP is still the party in the state.
Verdict: Jonathan looks good to clinch it. However, the APC will struggle to get 25 per cent.
DELTA
Just like Akwa Ibom, Delta State is also a PDP state. It has been so since 1999 and with the look of things, there seems no room for the opposition APC to operate. And with influence of the renowned ex-militant, like Mujahid Dokubo-Asari, Tompolo as well as Chief Edwin Clark, APC has no business in searching for votes in Delta State.
Verdict: Jonathan has it.
CROSS RIVERS
Cross Rivers State belongs to the PDP from the unset and nothing tangible has ever upset the calm reign of the sitting governor, Lyel Imoke. Even the crisis that rocked the PDP during the primaries was not so significant to disrupt the running of the state by the governor, who is said to be a silent operator.
Verdict: The state is strongly for Jonathan.
FCT
With the composition of the FCT, consisting majorly of civil servants, artisans and indigenes, the territory can go either way. Some major political gladiators, like the two ministers, Bala Muhammed and Jumoke Akinjide, who are supposed to coordinate, are likely to jet out to their home states of Bauchi and Oyo states respectively. Some civil servants may likely go home for the election. Where this happens, non-indigenes, especially traders, will decide what happened. The way it’s, it can go either way.
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