Straw poll of March 28 presidential election

A careful study of the demographics of Ni­geria voting patterns shows that General Muhammadu Buhari will win the presidential election now slated for March 28, 2015 based on an unbiased analysis of how voters shall cast their votes. President Goodluck Jonathan woke up too late to turn the tide that had already crystallised about six months ago and by early January 2015, 75 per cent of those who wanted to vote had already decided on who to vote for.

Three zones, namely South East, North-central and South West had the highest levels of floating voters. By this we mean, the highest number of undecided voters. By February 14, only the South East and North Central still had a fairly high number of un­decided voters and the shift of six weeks to March 28, Jonathan’s efforts may have decreased the undecided voters in the two zones to vote for him. As for the South West, the APC political machin­ery in that theatre is so well-organised and oiled that the PDP efforts there are not yielding the desired results. Two factors have influenced the president’s future in the South East and they are re­ligion and security concerns; and the same seem to apply to North Central. But unlike 2011, General Buhari will secure substantial votes in the North Central and greatly improve his showing in the South East.

We shall make six zonal pre­dictions of the votes for the two candidates and then breakdown

NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH EAST

BENUE PDP 510,000 APC 250,000 ABIA PDP 200,000 APC 100, 000

KOGI PDP 200,000 APC 300,000 ANAMBRA 300,000 APC 100,000

PLATEAU PDP 400,000 APC 290, 000 EBONYI PDP 450,000 APC100,000

KWARA PDP 180,000 APC 320,000 ENUGU PDP 300,000 APC 100,000

NIGER PDP 240,000 APC 400,000 IMO PDP 400,000 APC 200,000

NASSARAWA PDP 200,000 APC 300,000

NORTH EAST SOUTH SOUTH

ADAMAWA PDP 300,000 APC 400,000 AKWA IBOM PDP 500,000 APC 320,000

BAUCHI PDP 200,000 APC 600,000 CROSS RIVER PDP 300,000 APC 200,000

GOMBE PDP 200,000 APC 350,000 EDO PDP 300,000 APC 300,000

BORNU PDP 200,000 APC 500,000 DELTA PDP 500,000 APC 200,000

YOBE PDP 100,000 APC 400, 000 BAYELSA PDP 200,000 APC 100,000

TARABA PDP 300,000 APC 300,000 RIVERS PDP 600,000 APC 500,000

NORTHWEST SOUTH WEST

ZAMFARA PDP 100,000 APC 600,000 LAGOS PDP 800,000 APC 1, 500,000

SOKOTO PDP 200, 000 APC 600, 000 ONDO PDP 300,000 APC 200,000

KATSINA PDP 300,000 APC 1,000,000 OSHUN PDP 200,000 APC 300,000

KEBBI PDP 200,000 APC 500,000 EKITI PDP 200,000 APC 180,000

KANO PDP 500,000 APC 1,500,000 OGUN PDP 200,000 APC 300,000

JIGAWA PDP 250,000 APC 660,000 OYO PDP 300,000 APC 500,000

KADUNA PDP 600,000 APC 800,000

The above analysis shows that at the presidential election of March 28, the estimated votes for PDP shall be 11 million and the estimated votes for APC shall be 15.4 million. The zonal votes show that in the

North Central: PDP, 1,730,000; APC, 1,860,000; North East: PDP, 1, 300, 000, APC 2, 550, 000; North West: PDP, 2, 150, 000, APC, 5, 650, 000:

South East: PDP, 1, 650, 000, APC, 650, 000;

South South: PDP, 2,200,000, APC, 1,700,000: South West: PDP, 2,000,000, APC, 2,900,000;

FCT: PDP, 150,000, APC: 200, 000.

The president was a player in three zones but the votes secured from the three zones failed to match the Buhari votes secured from the other three zones, that have heavy number of voters. The president’s calculations failed him woefully in North Central, a zone he had assumed, would support him massively. Voters fatigue and apathy cost him a lot of votes in the South East and South South, both zones complaining that the president did not properly serviced those two zones considering the mas­sive support the two zones gave him in 2011.

The South East, in particular has taken the position that both the PDP and the president are taking their votes for granted and many voters in the zone will simply stay at home on the voting day and will surely troop out two weeks later to cast their votes in the governorship and House of Assembly elections. In spite of the voters’ apathy in the South East, the president will still carry all the states in that zone and will also, with the exception of Edo State, will carry all the states in South South. The APC candidate will carry all the states in North West and North East and will win marginally in North Central. The margin of victory for Gen. Buhari is a staggering 4. 4million votes and it is impossible for President Jonathan to close such a margin.

Considering these factors – (1) Voter turnout since 1999 elec­tions shows the following: 1999 (52%); 2003 (69%); 2007 (57%) and 2011 (54%) and the straw polls used 55 per cent for 2015 elections. In the two zones where President Jonathan is considered most likely to win i.e. South South and South East, voter turn­out in the 2015 election cycle is experiencing voter apathy due to already expressed reasons.

(2) In 2011 presidential polls the following turnouts were in­dicated: North East, 56%; North West, 56%; North Central, 49%; South East, 63%; South South, 62% and South West, 32%. Again, the turnout in the North East, North West and South West are likely to increase while the turnout in the South East and South South are likely to decrease. The simple explanation is that the North East, North West and South West zones feel that their sons, Buhari and Osinbajo, are in the APC ticket. Consider­ing the number accruing of voters to the three zones, Jonathan will find it absolutely impossible to fill the gap. These numbers must have also been considered by the president’s team, which explains the near panic actions the presi­dent has taken in the South West of late.

Listening to Prof. Jega at his last town hall meeting, it is obvious that the 2015 elections are primed to proceed, except, of course, due to any unforeseen circumstance. In 2011, elections were stopped after two hours in process.

Because of the postpone­ment that occurred five weeks ago, a repeat this time will not go down well with Nigerians, who very likely will accuse the administration of having its hand in disrupting the process, and because of the tight timelines to avoid a possible constitutional crises a shift in the elections this time may become impossible to contemplate.